Test High-Risk Hypothesis First

Attack the assumption most likely to kill you. Everything else can wait.

The Idea

Every product has hidden assumptions. One or two are load-bearing — if they're wrong, nothing else matters. Test those first, even if they're harder or scarier.

Why It Matters

Cheap, easy tests answer cheap, easy questions.
Avoiding the hard assumption lets it kill you later, after more investment.
Finding out sooner is always cheaper than finding out later.

How to Apply

List every assumption. Rank by risk if wrong.
Pick the top one. Design the smallest test that could disprove it.
Run it. Accept the answer.
Only then move to the next assumption.

Examples

"Will users pay?" beats "Will users like the onboarding?"
"Can we acquire users cheaply?" beats "Can we retain them longer?"
Validate demand before perfecting supply.

The Trap

Testing the comfortable assumption first because it's easier. The uncomfortable one is the one that matters.