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Predictable Surprises
Systems / Concepts
Disasters we should have seen coming — and didn't act on.
What It Means
Max Bazerman's term: events that weren't unforeseeable. The signals were there. Insiders knew. The surprise came not from the event but from the collective failure to respond. 9/11, Enron, the 2008 crash, Katrina — all predictable surprises.
Why They Happen
- The cost of prevention is visible; the cost of inaction is hypothetical.
- Responsibility is diffused — no one owns the prevention.
- Motivated reasoning dismisses warnings.
- Rare events feel like fiction until they arrive.
How to Apply
- Maintain a list of your "things we know are broken but haven't fixed."
- Ask: what would someone looking back say was obvious?
- When a warning repeats, take it more seriously, not less.
The Trap
Retrofitting predictability after the fact. Some surprises really are surprises. The label applies when the signals were genuinely present beforehand.
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