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Iceberg Model
Systems / Tools
Look beneath events to find patterns, structures, and the beliefs underneath.
The Four Levels
- Events — what just happened. The tip of the iceberg.
- Patterns — what keeps happening. Trends over time.
- Structures — the system producing the pattern. Rules, incentives, flows.
- Mental models — the beliefs that built the structure.
Most attention goes to events. The leverage lives below.
Why It Matters
- Fixing events produces whack-a-mole. The pattern comes back.
- Changing structures can dissolve the pattern.
- Changing mental models can dissolve the structures.
How to Apply
- Describe the event.
- Ask what pattern it's part of.
- Ask what structure produces that pattern.
- Ask what beliefs hold the structure in place.
- Intervene at the deepest level you can reach.
Example
- Event: an outage.
- Pattern: outages every month.
- Structure: no time for preventive work.
- Mental model: "shipping features is the only valuable work."
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